|PD/A CRSP Twentieth Annual Administrative Report
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Subcontract No. RD010E-01
University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff, Pine Bluff, Arkansas
|Carole R. Engle||US Principal Investigator|
|Ivano Neira||Graduate Student/Research Associate|
|Fernando Alcántara Bocanegra||Host Country Principal Investigator|
|Wilfrido Contreras-Sánchez||Host Country Principal Investigator|
|Raymundo Sury||Undergraduate Student|
|Agnes Saborio||Host Country Principal Investigator|
|Mucai Muchiri||Host Country Principal Investigator|
|Daniel E. Meyer||Host Country Principal Investigator|
|Freddy Arias||Host Country Principal Investigator|
|Carlos Leyva||Graduate Student|
This subcontract was awarded funding to conduct the following Tenth Work Plan investigations:
Engle, C.R. Marketing and Economics. In: C. Webster and C. Lim (Editors). Tilapia Culture, Nutrition, and Feeding. CABI Publishers. (in press)
Funez, O., I. Neira, and C. Engle, 2002. Open-air market outlets for tilapia in Honduras. Global Aquaculture Advocate, 5(1):88.
Neira, I. Analysis of the potential market for farm-raised tilapia in Nicaragua. M.S. thesis, University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff, Pine Bluff, Arkansas.
Valderrama, D. and C.R. Engle. Economic optimization of shrimp farming in Honduras. J. World Aquacult. Soc. (in review)
Valderrama, D. and C.R. Engle, 2001. Optimizacion economica del cultivo del camaron en Honduras. Sixth Central American Symposium on Aquaculture at Tegucigalpa, Honduras, 2224 August 2001. (in Spanish)
Valderrama, D. and C.R. Engle. The effect of survival rates of white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei on net farm income and optimal management strategies of Honduran shrimp farms. Aquaculture. (in review)
Funez, O., I. Neira, and C.R. Engle, 2001. Supermarket outlets for tilapia in Honduras: An overview of survey results. Sixth Central American Symposium on Aquaculture at Tegucigalpa, Honduras, 2224 August 2001.
Neira, I. and C. Engle, 2001. Markets for tilapia (Oeochromis spp.) in Nicaragua: A descriptive analysis of restaurants, supermarkets, and stands in open markets. Sixth Central American Symposium on Aquaculture at Tegucigalpa, Honduras, 2224 August 2001.
Neira, I., K. Quagrainie, and C. Engle, 2002. Markets for tilapia in Nicaragua: A quantitative analysis of restaurant markets. Annual Research Forum 2002, University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff, Pine Bluff, Arkansas.
Valderrama, D. and C.R. Engle, 2002. Economic optimization of shrimp farming in Honduras. Aquaculture America 2002, San Diego, California.
Sixth Central American Symposium on Aquaculture at Tegucigalpa, Honduras, 2224 August 2001. (Engle, Meyer, Neira)
Aquaculture America 2002 at San Diego, California, 2730 January 2002. (Engle, Neira)
PD/A CRSP Annual Meeting at San Diego, California, 31 January 2002. (Engle)
Latin American and the Caribbean Region Expert Panel Meeting at San Diego, California, 1 February 2002. (Engle)
Africa Regional Expert Panel Meeting at Nairobi, Kenya, 8 July 2002. (Muchiri)
Analysis of the characteristics and preferences of restaurants in Nicaragua is completed, and a manuscript is currently under review. The analysis of Honduran restaurants is also complete, and we are working on a manuscript. The last analysis will be a combined analysis with all market channels in both countries to sort out impacts across market segments. This abstract summarizes the results from the analysis of Nicaraguan restaurants.
Nicaragua has the physical resources to develop a farm-raised tilapia industry. However, no marketing studies have been done to assess the potential to develop a domestic market for farm-raised tilapia in Nicaragua. The purposes of this study were to assess the domestic restaurant market in Nicaragua and to evaluate its potential for increasing sales of farm-raised tilapia. Direct personal interviews were conducted with 118 restaurant managers selected as a random sample from telephone listings. Information was collected on tilapia and other seafood sales, restaurant and market characteristics, attitudes towards tilapia characteristics, and willingness to add tilapia to the menu. Logit analyses were used to measure the effects of consumer attitudes, entrée preferences, and restaurant characteristics on binary choice variables related to whether or not restaurants sold tilapia and the likelihood of adding tilapia to the menu. The most promising restaurant market for tilapia appeared to be older restaurants that offered a variety of food on the menu and those that served steak. Larger restaurants that considered tilapia to be a high-quality product and that offered ceviche on the menu were those that tended to sell tilapia. Tilapia farmers and processors in Nicaragua will need to guarantee and ensure the flavor, quality, and safety of their product and promote these attributes.
A Honduran graduate student has been recruited to work on this project. Costs associated with transportation and storage for both live and processed fish were collected. Direct personal interviews were conducted with wholesalers who were identified in the Ninth Work Plan surveys as principal suppliers of fish and seafood. Costs were developed for transportation over various distances, for different product forms, for different volumes, and for different sizes of trucks and equipment. These data have been compiled and are being organized into activities for subsequent use in the quantitative analysis. Target market data, obtained from the surveys completed in the Ninth Work Plan, are being compiled into market activities that specify the prices and quantities by product form for each geographic market (Tegucigalpa, San Pedro Sula, and a number of small towns) and for each market segment and channel in each geographic market. We have begun to construct the mathematical programming model that will be used to define profit-maximizing target markets for small- and medium-scale tilapia farmers. We have a simple version of the model working and are beginning to add in the various transportation and marketing activities that will be considered. The model will then be solved for a variety of farm sizes to determine which marketing strategies maximize profits. Other versions of the model will simulate farms located in different regions of the country.
We have developed a draft of the tool for rapid assessment of market feasibility for aquaculture species. The key parameters included in this tool are those variables that were significant in the logit analyses conducted in 10PDVR1, Characteristics of Fish Buyers Likely to Purchase Farm-Raised Tilapia in Honduras and Nicaragua (see abstract previous page). As we continue to complete the logit analyses, we may add or otherwise modify the rapid market assessment tool. To accomplish the objective related to the evaluation of the rapid market assessment tool, we have initiated a survey in Mexico City, Mexico. Mexico City is a very large, cosmopolitan urban area with a long history of tilapia consumption. We have initiated full surveys of restaurants, supermarkets, and open-air markets. We are simultaneously completing the rapid market assessment tool and will be testing to see if those parameters that were significant in the Honduran and Nicaraguan datasets were also those that are significant in Mexico City. Likewise, we will be conducting similar surveys in Peru later this fall. In Peru we will have the opportunity to test the rapid market assessment tool in Iquitos, an area where tilapia are not allowed and are not marketed, as well as in Lima, a South American metropolitan area where some tilapia are sold. Based on the outcomes of these subsequent analyses of the most important parameters in determining market feasibility, we will make final modifications to the rapid market assessment tool. We will also draw some conclusions as to whether or not it is possible to utilize a generalized rapid market assessment tool for many different Latin American countries with differing market characteristics.
Templates were developed to collect all of the necessary price and quantity data required for the development of enterprise budgets. The production technologies most appropriate for development have been selected. We are currently completing the data collection phase of this project. With all the data in hand, we will then enter the price and quantity data means into the spreadsheet templates to generate the enterprise budgets. From the enterprise budgets, we will then prepare the pro forma balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow budgets required to have a complete business plan example for prospective farmers, lenders, and policy-makers.
This project is underway as described in the abstract for 10MEAR3, Regional Enterprise Budget and Business Plan Development. Once the enterprise budgets have been compiled, we will complete the risk analysis. The risk analysis will be conducted as a stochastic simulation in which ranges of values of random variables such as yield and price may be defined by probability distributions instead of the sample averages used in standard enterprise budgets. Monte Carlo simulation techniques will be used to generate values for individual cost and quantity items based on the probability distributions. Results presented will include the entire range of possible outcomes for parameters such as gross receipts, total costs, and net returns, as well as their associated probabilities.
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